Factors Determining the Exchange Rate Movement under a Partial Capital Mobility Regime

The study examines the rupee-US dollar exchange rate (Rs/$) behaviour in the presence of increasing and ample capital inflows in the post-reform period in India. Using monthly data (1994:4 to 2007:8) the study estimates a basic exchange rate model in a time series framework in order to assess the relative significance of capital inflows in the presence of interest rate, inflation rate and growth rate differentials and other factors (forward exchange rate/expected exchange rate) in influencing the rupee-dollar exchange rate behaviour. It finds the dominance of foreign institutional investments affecting the rupee-dollar exchange rate and, to a certain extent, it is seen that the influence of the growth rate differential affects the exchange rate behaviour in India.Exchange rate, capital mobility, interest rate, inflation, block Granger causality,