The Study of Economic Indicators Which Affect the Returns of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Taiwan

[[abstract]]美國國會於1960年立法通過「不動產投資信託」（Real Estate Investment Trusts, REITs）相關條文，藉以提供個人長期但流通性仍佳的投資管道。而我國參考美國、日本，與我國「共同信託基金管理辦法」及「金融資產證券化條例」，於民國九十二年七月二十三日公布實施「不動產證券化條例」，將不動產轉換成證券，使傳統以不動產為擔保向金融機構借款之方式，可直接向資本市場募集資金，此一條例之實施除提供相關業者另一籌資管道，同時也提高不動產的流動性。 截至2010 年12 月底止，國內共有八檔上市櫃不動產投資信託基金，本文以其為主要研究對象，並參酌國內外股市行情相互對照，希能瞭解國內不動產投資信託基金之獲利表現，是優、是劣或持平，是否如其被定義的「相對保守、穩定」；再者觀察國內不動產投資信託基金，是否和國外不動產投資信託基金，會產生與股市大盤反其道而行的現象。雖然國內不動產投資信託基金，自富邦一號於九十四年五月發售至今，不過5年光景，卻己經過兩次大規模的起伏和一次全球性的金融風暴，以資料的質量而言，應足可分析國內不動產投資信託基金之特性。 本文將以台灣公開發行之八檔不動投資基金為對象，研究其報酬率與各類經濟指標的關聯性，經本文以Stata SE11為工具及為 模型，做相關係數分析，研究結果發現「建築指數」、「物價指數」、「租金指數」、「十年期中央政府公債利率」和「營建類股股價指數」與八檔不動投資基金報酬率存在正向之相關性。 The U.S. Congress passed the legislation “Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)” in 1960, which offered the individual a long-term but correspondingly liquid investment means. Taiwan studied REITs legislation from the U.S. and also Japan, and our regulation of “the management of common trust funds” and “the securitization regulations of financial assets”, and implemented “the securitization regulations of real estate” on July 23, 2003. It converted real estate into securities, and enabled the real estate business to finance capital from the public, in addition to the traditional way, which hypothecated property as security when borrowing money from financial institutions. The implementation of this regulation provided the real estate business with another fund-raising channel while at the same time enhancing the liquidity of real estate. Up to the end of December 2010, there were eight listed REITs in the public market. This paper regards them as the main research object. In order to analyze the performance of Taiwan’s domestic REITs (T-REITS) as excellent, poor, or fair, domestic and international stock market quotes are referenced. Are the domestic REITs correspondingly conservative and stable in returns? Moreover, observing both the domestic and foreign investment trust funds will produce its own phenomenon instead of a stock market deep bid. Since the first domestic real estate investment trust fund, the Fubon No. One, was sold in May 2004, Taiwan’s REITs have survived two extensive real estate circles and one global financial storm. As for quality and quantity of the data, there is enough data to analyze the investment trust fund characteristics of the domestic real estate trust fund. This paper will study the relationship between several economical indices and the rate of return of T-REITs. The data was collected from June 2007 to September 2010. Stata SE11 is the tool and stepwise regression used to make the analysis of coefficient correlation. The results of this study finds that “the index of the construction”, “consumer price index”, “rental index”, “ten -year central government bonds interest rate” and “ construction stock price index” show a positive correlation with the rate of returns of T-REITs