Design of a prototype forecasting system in Excel and its application in logistics

V magistrskem delu bomo podrobno predstavili več definicij pojma »napovedovanje« in ključne dejavnike, ki vplivajo na potrebo podjetij po napovedovanju. Omenili bomo tudi splošne težave, s katerimi se podjetja srečujejo pri napovedovanju, in postopke za omilitev teh težav. Pri opisu sistemov za napovedovanje bomo podrobno opredelili z njimi povezane ključne pojme, še posebej pojem »sistem za napovedovanje«, in podali tudi svojo definicijo. Natančno bomo opisali uporabljene metode za napovedovanje in ostale pristope za izdelavo modelov napovedi, ki so prisotni v prototipu. Izdelani prototip bomo najprej podrobno preizkusili z uporabo hipotetičnih simulacij, kjer bomo izdelali napovedi za specifične primere rasti, padcev, stagnacije itd. Na koncu bomo s pomočjo prototipa izdelali napovedi za pet različnih podjetij. Izdelani modeli napovedi bodo predstavljeni numerično in grafično. Posamezne modele napovedi bomo med seboj primerjali in opredelili njihovo uspešnost. Na koncu bomo predstavili še potencialne nadgradnje prototipa.In this master\u27s thesis, we will describe in detail several definitions of the term “forecasting” and preset key factors that influences companies need to forecast. We will mention some basic difficulties companies have when forecasting and steps to eliviate these difficulties. In the description of various forecasting systems we will define the term “forecasting system” in the context that applies to this work as well as our definition. We will describe the various forecasting methods that are present in this prototype and other approaches used to create forecasting models. The prototype will be tested in detail first with the use of hypothetical simulations, where we will make predictions for specific examples of growth, falls, stagnation, etc. In the end we will use the created prototype to create forecasting models for 5 different companies. The models will be presented numerically and graphically. Each forecasting model will be compared to others and their success evaluated. Finally, we will present potential future upgrades for the prototype