Changes of housing prices and their relationship with macroeconomic factors

Magistrsko delo preučuje odnos med makroekonomskimi spremenljivkami in cenami stanovanjskih nepremičnin v štirih državah, Sloveniji, Avstriji, Nemčiji in v Veliki Britaniji. Raziskava temelji na metodi najmanjših kvadratov z namenom proučitve vpliva pojasnjevalnih spremenljivk, kot so bruto domači proizvod, realna višina dologoročnih obrestnih mer, stopnja brezposelnosti in drugih na odvisno spremenljivko, obravnavano v raziskavi, to je na indeks cene stanovanjskih nepremičnin. Podatki za analizo so pridobljeni iz sekundarnih virov, v obliki časovnih vrst. Podatke smo obdelali, da so bili primerni za analizo. Analizirali so izbrane makroekonomske kazalnike, za katere smo na podlagi preteklih raziskav in analiz predvidevali, da imajo vpliv na cene stanovanjskih nepremičnin. Tekom raziskave smo za vsako posamezno državo razvili linearni regresijski model in z metodo najmanjših kvadratov smo ocenili vpliv posameznega makroekonomskega kazalnika. Ob tem smo testirali vse zahtevane predpostavke metode najmanjših kvadratov, s čemer smo zagotovili verodostojne rezultate.This research examines the relationship between the changes of housing prices and the macroeconomic factors in 4 countries, in Slovenia, Austria, Germany and in Great Britain. This paper uses the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to capture the effect of independent variables, which are the Real Gross Domestic Product, the Real Interest Rate, the Unemployment Rate and others on the dependent variable, which is the Housing Price, measured with House Price Index. The data of the variables in this study are obtained through secondary sources. A time-series analysis is conducted to acquire the results. Some selected macroeconomic factors which have presumably influenced price movements are presented and analysed. During the research we developed 4 regression models for each observed country. The Ordinary Least Squares approach is used to assess the influence and power of macroeconomic factors that affect on housing price movements. During the research we tested all necessary assumptions to produce unbiased estimators using OLS