Keynes\u27 and Lucas\u27 heuristic model

Keynesianizem je še vedno ključna izhodiščna točka za makroekonomske šole. Keynesa so slabosti tržnega mehanizma usmerile na aktivno ekonomsko politiko in poudarjanje povpraševanja. Slabost keynesianizma pa je po Lucasu v nezmožnosti napovedovanja reakcij v gospodarstvu in zato ni čvrstih kriterijev za izbor alternativnih ekonomskih politik. S keynesianskega vidika je upoštevanje preteklih gibanj in napovedovanje le teh dovolj za oblikovanje ustrezne ekonomske politike. Ko je okolje stabilno in ekonomska politika ne reagira, lahko ekonomski subjekti pravilno oblikujejo svoja pričakovanja po Lucasu, medtem ko se ob intervenciji ekonomske politike okolje spreminja in ekonomski subjekti lahko napačno anticipirajo spremembe in posledično pride do nihanj v gospodarstvu.Keynesianism is still the starting point of macroeconomic analysis. Keynes stresses the role of aggregate demand, and the role of the state instead of the market mechanism. A disadvantage of Keynesianism, according to Lucas, is the impossibiliy of forecasting reactions in an economy, and there are no firm criteria for choosing alternative economic policies. According to Keynsianism, forecasting based on past movements is sufficient for choosing alternative economic policies. Furthermore, according to Lucas, rational expectations are possible in an economy with no state intervention and in a stable economic environment. In an economy with state intervention, the economic environment is unstable, which conditions irrational expectations and cyclical movements