THE MOST IMPORTANT MACROECONOMIC CRITERIA OF REPUBLIC SLOVENIA

V diplomskem delu smo z analiziranjem gibanja treh najpomembnejših makroekonomskih kazalcev (BDP-ja, brezposelnosti in inflacije) opisali gospodarski položaj v Republiki Sloveniji in ga primerjali s povprečjem v EU. V okviru diplomskega dela smo oblikovali in analizirali tri hipoteze, in sicer, da makroekonomski kazalci napovedujejo majhno pozitivno gospodarsko rast v Republiki Sloveniji v prihodnjih letih, da gospodarsko stanje vpliva na kakovost življenja državljanov, in tretjo hipotezo, da Republika Slovenija izkazuje znižanje gospodarske rasti v primerjavi s povprečjem v EU. Podatke za analizo gibanja makroekonomskih kazalcev v Sloveniji in EU smo pridobili iz uradno objavljenih poročil SURS-a, UMAR-ja, Eurostata in javnih medijev. Analizirane podatke smo prikazali v tabelarični in grafični obliki. Pri poskusu napovedi gibanja makroekonomskih kazalcev za Slovenijo v prihodnosti smo poleg analiziranih podatkov uporabili tudi intervjuje strokovnjakov na obravnavanem področju. Rezultati opravljenih analiz kažejo, da je bil BDP v Sloveniji v večjem delu obdobja 2009−2013 negativen, napovedi za obdobje 2014−2016 pa so nekoliko bolj optimistične, saj pričakujemo minimalno rast BDP-ja. Brezposelnost v Sloveniji se je v letih 2009−2013 povečala približno za 100 %, napovedi za leta 2014−2016 pa so malo spodbudnejše, saj pričakujemo, da se število brezposelnih ne bo povečevalo oziroma se bo še malenkost znižalo. Inflacija je v zadnjih petih letih relativno stabilna in tudi napovedi za naslednja tri leta so podobne. Tako lahko zaključimo, da je Slovenija v obdobju 2009−2013 doživela vrsto negativnih gospodarskih dogodkov in da smo to dokazali s pomočjo analize treh najpomembnejših makroekonomskih kazalcev. Glede na napovedi bi optimisti lahko rekli, da je krize konec in da nas sedaj čaka okrevanje države in novo, boljše obdobje za njene državljane.In the thesis we have, by analyzing the tree most important macroeconomic indicators, (GDP, unemployment and inflation) described the economic situation in the Republic of Slovenia and compared it with the EU average. As part of the thesis we have developed and analyzed three hypotheses, namely that macroeconomic indicators predict minimal positive economic growth in the Republic of Slovenia in the coming years, the economic situation affects the quality of life of its citizens, and the third hypothesis, that the Republic of Slovenia shows a reduction in growth compared to the average in the EU. Data for the analysis of the macroeconomic indicators in Slovenia and the EU were obtained from official reports published SORS, IMAD, Eurostat and the public media. The analyzed data were presented in tabular and graphical format. When trying to forecast the future movements of macroeconomic indicators in Slovenia, we have in addition to analyzing the data, also used interviews of experts in the field. The results of the analysis show that GDP in Slovenia has been negative for most of the period between the years of 2009-2013, the period between the years 2014-2016 seems somewhat more optimistic as we expect minimal growth in GDP. Unemployment in Slovenia in the years 2009-2013 increased by almost 100%, predictions for the years 2014-2016 were a little more encouraging, as it is expected that the number of unemployed will not be increasing and it will have a slight decline. Inflation has been relatively stable in the last five years and forecasts for the next three years are similar. Thus, we can conclude that Slovenia, in the period of 2009-2013, experienced a series of negative economic events. We have demonstrated that through the analysis of the three most important macroeconomic indicators. According to the predictions the optimists may say that the crisis is over and we are now awaiting the recovery of the country and a new, better period for its citizens