A Differentiated Road Transportation Demand Model as an Instrument for an Effective Pricing Policy in the Transportation Market in Slovenia

Ekonomisti se že več desetletij ukvarjajo s problematiko alokacijske neučinkovitosti transportnega trga, katerega posledica je neučinkovitost cenovnega mehanizma kot usmerjevalca obsega transportnega povpraševanja, tržna neučinkovitost zaradi odsotnosti ustreznih signalov glede investiranja, in tržna neučinkovitost zaradi izkrivljenosti konkurenčnosti med različnimi vrstami prevoza. Obračunavanje in plačevanje diferenciranih cestnin je v praksi čedalje bolj podprto z razvojem novih tehnologij in z uvajanjem interoperabilnosti na področju brezkontaktnega elektronskega cestninjenja vozil v prostem toku v skupnem evropskem prostoru, zato se postavlja vprašanje, ali lahko s sistemom cestnin, diferenciranih med cestnimi odseki, učinkovito vplivamo na obnašanje povpraševanja na slovenskem transportnem trgu in na (pre)razporeditev prometnih obremenitev z osebnimi avtomobili in s tovornimi vozili. V doktorski disertaciji poročamo o ocenah elastičnosti povpraševanja po prevozih z osebnimi avtomobili in s tovornimi vozili na cestninskih cestah v Sloveniji glede na najpomembnejše cenovne in strukturno-kvalitativne determinante tega povpraševanja. V danem primeru gre za prvo tovrstno ekonometrično analizo panelnih podatkov na primeru Slovenije oziroma na primeru testiranja doslej najobsežnejše slovenske podatkovne baze. Nadalje identificiramo in ocenimo tudi diferencirana modela transportnega povpraševanja po cestnih prevozih z osebnimi avtomobili in s tovornimi vozili v Sloveniji v okviru dveh geografskih delitev: (a) glede na lego števnega mesta oziroma cestninske ceste na V. panevropskem cestnem koridorju v primerjavi z ostalim proučevanim območjem Slovenije, in (b) glede na lego števnega mesta oziroma cestninske ceste na treh različnih prometnih geografskih smereh Slovenije, in sicer na primorski, gorenjski in štajerski smeri. Vsebinski okvir doktorske disertacije temelji na proučevanju ekonomike cestnega transporta. Predmet našega raziskovanja sta tako analiza in modeliranje povpraševanja po cestnih motornih prevozih v primeru Slovenije. Z izsledki doktorske disertacije želimo vzpodbuditi in omogočiti primerno uporabo cenovnih in drugih ekonomskih instrumentov prometne politike za upravljanje povpraševanja po cestnih prevozih na cestninskih cestah v Sloveniji, kar bi prispevalo k optimizaciji teh prevozov v času in prostoru ter s tem tudi k večji učinkovitosti transportnega trga. Na osnovi panela podatkov smo ocenili ekonometrični model transportnega povpraševanja po prevozih z osebnimi avtomobili in s tovornimi vozili na desetih odsekih cestninskih cest v Sloveniji. Osrednje vsebinske ugotovitve opravljene raziskave so naslednje: Prvič, transportno povpraševanje je na slovenskih avtocestah cenovno neelastično. Zviševanje cestnine bi upravljavcu cestninskih cest v Sloveniji lahko zagotavljalo več finančnih virov. Drugič, cenovna elastičnost transportnega povpraševanja se med različnimi skupinami cestninskih odsekov potrjeno razlikuje, zato je smiselna uvedba diferenciranega sistema cestninjenja, ki omogoča hkratno doseganje cilja večje internalizacije zunanjih stroškov transporta, cilja upravljanja obsega transportnega povpraševanja na osnovi stroškovnih cen ter cilja večjega pokrivanja stroškov vzdrževanja in razvoja cestninskih cest v Sloveniji. Tretjič, cestno transportno povpraševanje je v Sloveniji bolj kot na spremembe višine cestnin odzivno na spremembe cen goriva, še zlasti to velja za tovorna vozila, zato lahko prometna politika transportno povpraševanje upravlja tudi z višino cen goriva. In končno, ocene diferenciranih modelov transportnega povpraševanja glede na različne skupine cestnih odsekov nakazujejo na nezadostno konkurenčnost prevoznih podsistemov, tj. cestnega in železniškega, kar bi verjetno lahko izboljšali s širjenjem transportne ponudbe z večanjem konkurenčnosti alternativnega železniškega prevoza ter alternativnih transportnih poti.For several decades, economists have been dealing with the issue of the allocative inefficiency of the transport market resulting in the inefficiency of the price mechanism as a corrector and optimizer of transport demand, in the inefficiency on the market due to the lack of correct signals regarding investments, and in the inefficiency due to distortions in competition among different transport modes. The calculation and payment of differentiated tolls is in practice increasingly aided by the development of new technologies and the introduction of interoperable contactless electronic toll collection for vehicles in free flow in the common European area. An important research question thus arises: Can the system of tolls differentiated between toll sections effectively influence the behaviour of the demand on the Slovenian transport market and the (re)distribution of transport flows? In the present doctoral thesis we provide estimates of the elasticity of passenger and freight transport demand on the toll roads in Slovenia with respect to the most significant price and structural-qualitative determinants of this demand. The study entails the first such econometric analysis of panel data for Slovenia and is the first testing the most comprehensive transport database for Slovenia. Further, we also identify and assess the differentiated models of road transport demand for transport by passenger cars and freight vehicles in Slovenia based, on two geographical divisions: (a) one with respect to the position of counting locations and toll roads along Pan-European Road Corridor V compared to their position in the rest of the study area in Slovenia, and (b) the other one with respect to the position of the counting locations and toll roads in three different geographical directions of Slovenia, namely the Gorenjska, Štajerska and Primorska directions. The contextual framework of the doctoral dissertation is based on the study of the road transport economics. The object of research is the analysis and the modelling of road transport demand in the case of Slovenia. By presenting the results of the dissertation we wish to enable and encourage the proper application of pricing and other economic instruments of transport policy to manage the demand for road transport on the toll roads in Slovenia, which would contribute to the optimisation of the mentioned services in time and space and thereby increase the efficiency of the transport market. Using the panel data, we estimate an econometric model of the passenger and freight transport demand on ten sections of toll roads in Slovenia. The main substantive findings of the study that was carried out are as follows: Firstly, the transport demand on Slovenian motorways is price-inelastic. A rise in tolls could provide additional financial resources for the toll roads operator in Slovenia. Secondly, price elasticity of transport demand varies among different groups of toll sections, which suggests the introduction of a differentiated toll system that would enable the following objectives to be achieved simultaneously: higher internalisation of the external costs of transport, transport demand management on the basis of cost price, and increasing cost recovery of the maintenance and development of toll roads in Slovenia. Thirdly, road transport demand is more responsive to the changes in fuel prices than to the changes in tollstherefore, it is possible for transport policy to manage transport demand through changes in the level of fuel prices. And finally, estimates of differentiated demand models according to several geographical groups of road sections indicate a low level of competitiveness of the road and railway transport subsystems, which could be improved through the expansion of transport supply by increasing the competitiveness of alternative rail transport and alternative transport routes