COMPONENT FORECASTING FOR THE MANUFACTURE

Diplomska naloga zajema področje logistike, ki je zelo pomembno za vsako podjetje — to je napovedovanje zalog. Prevelika količina zalog sestavnih delov za proizvodnjo v podjetjih povzroča največji delež nepotrebnih stroškov. V teoretičnem delu smo opisali metode napovedovanja s fiksnim vzorcem ter še nekaj metod za bolj natančno obravnavo podatkov. Opisana znanja smo nato uporabili na realnem primeru proizvodnega podjetja, ki pa je zaradi zaupnosti podatkov želelo ostati neimenovano. Cilj diplomskega dela je bila optimizacija ravni zalog šestindvajsetih sestavnih delov. S preračunom prometa iz preteklih obdobij smo ugotovili najboljše metode napovedovanja za posamezen sestavni del. S kombinacijo tega izračuna ter uporabo izkušenj s kupci, ki jih v podjetjih ne manjka, je bolj učinkovito napovedovanje zalog zagotovljeno.Diploma covers the area of logistics, which is very important for every company — that is the prediction of stocks. It is too big inventory of components for manufacture that creates the largest share of unnecessary costs. In the theoretical part we describe the methods of forecasting with a fixed pattern and some other methods for more accurate reading of data. Described knowledge was then used on real production company, which name was, because of the confidentially reasons, not mentioned. The objection of this diploma was optimization of the stocks for twenty-six components. With the traffic analysis from previous periods, we found the best method for the prediction of each component. Combining this calculation and usable experience with customers, the more effective prediction of stocks is guaranteed