The Economic Feasibility of Conversion from Conventional to Organic Farming

Raziskava zajema pripravo preusmeritvenega načrta konvencionalne živinorejske kmetije v ekološko rejo krav molznic z vidika ekonomske in finančne analize. V ta namen je bil razvit tehnološko ekonomski simulacijski model s pripadajočimi kalkulacijami skupnih stroškov za vsak kmetijski proizvod. Rezultati raziskave so pokazali, da kmetija posluje v sistemu konvencionalnega kmetovanja ekonomsko neupravičeno (Ke=0.91), medtem ko sta prvo (Ke = 1.10) in drugo leto preusmeritveekonomsko upravičeni (Ke=1.08). Upravičen je tudi predvideni ekološki način kmetovanja na kmetiji (Ke=1.17). Analiza kaže tudi, da so za prehod v ekološko kmetovanje nujne nekatere spremembe oz. investicijska vlaganja. Modelna ocena parametrov finančne smotrnosti investiranja v preusmeritev kmetijskega gospodarstva je pokazala, da je s finančnega vidika po 10 letih ob predvideni 14 % obrestni meri ter ob predpostavki spremenljivega letnega denarnega toka, investicija upravičena (NSV=23,575.28 €).Obdobje povratka investicije zapade 4.leto (NSV=1,486.33 €), ocenjena maksimalna interna stopnja donosa, ob kateri je še smotrno izvesti investicijo, znaša 17.39%.The aim of this research was to elaborate a conversion plan of a conventional livestock farm for conversion to organic dairy farm in the light of economic and financial analysis. For this purpose, the technological-economic simulation system that integrates the enterprise budget calculations for individual farm product was developed. The results of research show that the farm production is in conventional farming system economically infeasible (Ke=0.91), while the first(Ke = 1.10) and the second year of conversion are economically feasible(Ke=1.08). The planned organic production on the farm is economically feasible as well (Ke=1.17). The analysis also shows that the conversion to organic farming requires some changes or rather investments. At presumed model input parameters – after 10 years of constant cash flow and estimated 14% interest rate – the results show that investment into organic farming is financially feasible (NPV=23,575.28 €). The return of investment period is 4 years(NPV=1,486.33 €), the estimated maximum internal rate of return where the investments are still profitable equals 17.39%