TRADING WITH SECURITIES ON THE BASIS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - THE CASE OF SOLAR SECTOR

Diplomsko delo je sestavljeno iz teoretičnega in praktičnega dela. V uvodu je opredeljeno področje, ki je predmet raziskave, namen in cilji ter osnovne trditve ter predpostavke. V poglavju 2 smo se predvsem osredotočili na zgodovino in nastanek tehnične analize, prav tako smo izpostavili prednosti le te. Pomembne so tri predpostavke na katerih temelji tehnična analiza: prva predpostavka je, da tečaj vrednostnega papirja v vsakem trenutku odseva vse potencialne vplive nanj. Druga predpostavka je, da je preučevanje trendov osnovni koncept tehnične analize. Dogajanje na borzi je v veliki meri povezano s človeško psihologijo. Grafični vzorci niso nič drugega, kot različne slike, ki prikazujejo gibanje tečajev skozi čas in prav vsaka nosi v sebi posebno zgodovino. Med drugimi nam prikazujejo optimistično ali pesimistično razpoloženje vlagateljev na trgu. Pretekle izkušnje vlagateljev pogosto vplivajo na njihovo odločanje v prihodnosti in od tukaj tretja predpostavka, da je prihodnost zgolj ponavljajoča se zgodovina. Uporabljanje tehnične analize od nas zahteva poznavanje različnih orodij, grafov, trendnih linij, formacij in najpomembnejše indikatorjev. Indikatorje delimo na sledilne in vodilne. Med sledilne spadajo drseče sredine, Bollingerjev pas ter MACD, ki nam kažejo na dogajanje s cenami vrednostnega papirja, ne opozarjajo pa na morebitne obrate tečaja. Vodilni indikatorji nam dajejo nakupne in prodajne signale preden tečaj spremeni smer. V poglavju 3 smo opisati najpomembnejša orodja tehnične analize in dodali tudi slike iz prakse za lažje razumevanje. V poglavju 4 smo praktično prikazali zanesljivost vodilnih in sledilnih indikatorjev na dveh primerih delnic solarnega sektorja. Izbrali smo si časovno obdobje raziskave, nato smo sledili nakupnim in prodajnim signalom, ki so jih posredovali indikatorji. Rezultate smo zajeli v tabelo in jih ovrednotili. V Sloveniji tehnična analiza ni zelo poznana. To je eden od razlogov zakaj smo se odločili, da jo preučimo.My thesis consists of the theoretical and practical part. In the introduction area of research is defined as well as, the intention and the goal, basic affirmations and presumptions. In Chapter 2 we mainly focused on the history and formation of technical analysis, as we pointed out its advantages. There are three important presumptions underlying technical analysis: the first one is that the price of a security at any given time reflects all potential effects on it. Another presumption is that examining trends is the basic concept of technical analysis. Developments in the stock market are largely related to human psychology. Graphic patterns are nothing more than different images that show changes in exchange rate over time and also every one carries within a special history. Among others they show the optimistic or pessimistic mood of investors in the market. Past experience often influence investor’s decisions in the future and there from the third presumption that the future is just repeating history. Using technical analysis requires us to understand off various tools, graphics, trend lines, formations and the most important indicators. Indicators are divided into lagging and leading. Into lagging indicators fall moving averages, Bollinger band and MAC, which show us happenings with the prices of securities, but not possible turning of the course. Leading indicators give us the buying and selling signals before the rate change in direction. In Chapter 3 we describe the most important technical analysis tools and also add pictures from practice to facilitate understanding. In Chapter 4 we practically showed the reliability of lagging and leading indicators in the two share cases of the solar sector. We have chosen the research period, and then we followed the buying and selling signals provided by the indicators. The results were included in the table and we evaluate them. Technical analysis is not well known in Slovenia. This is one of the reasons why we decided to study it