A model of key optimal financial structure factors for Slovene non-financial companies

Po več kot pol stoletja znanstvenega raziskovanja finančne strukture pretežno velikih podjetij se še vedno nahajamo pred "enigmo", ki počasi odkriva svoje skrivnosti. Strokovni spor med praktiki in teoretiki se nadaljuje, aktualna finančna kriza pa je oba tabora prisilila, da sta uvidela lastne napake in začela iskati kompromisno razlago. Teoretiki počasi opuščajo idejo o splošnem ravnovesnem modelu kapitalske strukture, praktiki pa poskušajo bolje razumeti in uporabiti spoznanja teorije. Teorija kapitalske strukture nam zagotavlja koristen koncept razumevanja značilnosti oblikovanja finančne strukture v obliki hipoteze o zaporedju financiranja (POH) ter hipoteze tehtanja koristi in stroškov (TOH). Hipotezi smo v modificirani obliki za potrebe vzorca MSP uporabili tudi v naši raziskavi. Tako smo oblikovali specifičen podvzorec, ki praviloma ne pozna agencijskega problema med lastniki in managerji. Posledično so MSP bolj dolgoročno usmerjena, saj ne čutijo pritiska trga kapitala na njihovo vrednost. Na drugi strani pa imajo MSP višje vstopne pregrade na finančnem trgu ter visoko odvisnost od bančnega financiranja (v državah EU okoli 90 %). Finančno strukturo smo opazovali kot celoto investicijskih in finančnih odločitev znotraj danega ekonomskega sistema, ker smo prepričani, da imajo testirane hipoteze samo pogojno veljavnost. Iskanje optimalne finančne strukture je pravzaprav plovba med Scilo in Karibdo. Na eni strani imamo zavajajočo deterministično logiko ekonometričnih modelov, na drugi strani pa heterogenost izkušenj praktikov in njihovo intuicijo. Tradicionalne hipoteze finančne strukture velikih podjetij so nam zagotovile izhodišče za oblikovanje pojasnjevalnih spremenljivk, ki so morale biti neposredno merljive in razumljive široki poslovni javnosti. Pri vključevanju izbranih cenilk za opazovanje vpliva pojasnjevalnih spremenljivk so pomembne tudi praktične izkušnje, ki nam zagotavljajo znanje o dosegljivih podatkih in njihovih pomanjkljivostih. Cilj naše raziskave je med drugim oblikovanje liste ključnih dejavnikov finančne strukture, ki z zbliževanjem prakse in teorije omogoča vzajemno učenje. Pričujočo raziskavo značilnosti finančne strukture smo osnovali na dveh neodvisnih vzorcih podatkov: BISNODE za slovenska podjetja ter BACH2 za podjetja nekaterih evropskih držav, ki zagotavljajo harmonizirane podatke. Dodana vrednost naše raziskave je v oblikovanju dveh ekonometričnih modelov zadolževanja podjetja, da lahko posebej opazujemo dolgoročno in kratkoročno zadolževanje. Poleg tega smo uvedli dva popolnoma nova pojasnjevalna dejavnika finančne strukture: a) stroški virov financiranja ter b) finančna nefleksibilnost. V sintezi modelnih spoznanj o zadolževanju slovenskih MSP ugotavljamo dokaj močno povezavo med investicijskimi ter finančnimi odločitvami, ki verjetno določijo značilnosti finančne strukture za celotno ekonomsko dobo investicijskega projekta. Ugotovljena visoka stopnja inercije dolgoročnega in kratkoročnega zadolževanja sugerira, da tekoča optimizacija finančne strukture skoraj ni mogoča. Pri tem je zanimivo tudi opažanje, da cena virov financiranja ne igra statistično značilne vloge v slovenskih modelih zadolževanja. Poleg tega se je v obeh modelih zadolževanja izkazalo, da so podjetja s prevladujočim tujim lastnikom manj zadolžena. Slednje pa velja tudi za podjetja z višjo stopnjo finančne nefleksibilnosti. Pomembnejših razlik med dejavnostmi nismo ugotovili. Modelna spoznanja o zadolževanju evropskih podjetij pri vplivu donosnosti poslovanja, unovčljivosti premoženja ter inercije vzpostavljenih finančnih struktur so identična modelu slovenskih podjetij. Statistično značilen vpliv smo ugotovili tudi pri novih pojasnjevalnih spremenljivkah stroškov financiranja (podjetja z visokimi stroški financiranja so manj dolgoročno zadolžena) ter finančne nefleksibilnosti (podjetja z daljšim procesom kroženja denarja so bolj dolgoročno zadolžena). Upoštevajoč rezultate ekonometričnih modelAfter more than half a century of scientific research on financial structure issues of big public companies we stil have to deal with a "puzzle" which reveals its secrets verly slowly. The dispute between practitioners and theorists is persistant but in the aftermath of financial crisis, their blunders were exposed and they were both forced to search for a compromise. Theorists are slowly abandoning the search for a generally valid equilibrium capital structure and practitioners are trying to implement some theoretical insights. The capital structure theory provides us with a very useful basic undestanding of financial structure: the pecking order hypothesis (POH) and the trade-off hypothesis (TOH). Both theoretical concepts have been used in our SME dominated samples in a modified version. Thus we built a specific subsample free of agency problem issues betweeen managers and owners. Consequenlty, such firms are much more long-term oriented since they do not feel the market pressure on their valuation. On the other hand, SMEs have high barriers to enter the financial market and a high dependency rate on bank financing (in EU countries up to 90 % of total debt). Financial structure has been treated as a result of investment and financial decisions within a specific economic system because we firmly believe that a tested hypothesis has only a conditional validity. In our experience searcing for an optimal financial structure is like sailing between Scylla and Charybdis. On the one side we have a deceivingly deterministic logic of econometric models, and on the other side there is the heterogenity of practical experience and intuition. The traditional hypothesis of financial structure in big companies provided us with a starting point for preparing explanatory variables which had to be directly observable and broadly understandable for the interested public. Our practical experience was very useful in this process for understanding the benefits and deficiencies of variables included. One of declared aims of our research is a list of key financial structure variables which will enable a proces of mutual learning between practice and theory. The present research on financial structure was carried out on the basis of two independent company data sources: BISNODE for Slovene companies and BACH2 for companies from eight other EU countries which provide hamonised balance sheet data. We tried to increase the added value of our research by creating two econometric models which enable us to observe the long-term and short-term debt formation separately. Moreover, we tried to introduce two new explanatory factors: a) financing costs and b) financial inflexibility. The implementation of our econometric models of debt formation in SMEs revealed a strong link between investment and financial decisions which are determining the financial structure for the whole economic period of an investment project. The observed high level of inertia in both long and short-term debt suggests that there is almost no possibilities for current adjustments. We also made an interesting observation that only in domestic data the financing costs do not show any influence on the level of debt. Additionally, companies under dominant foreign ownership and companies with higher financial inflexibility showed lower levels of both measures of debt. We also could not find any significant differencies in levels of debt in most of the industries analysed. Econometric analysis of debt formation based on European data showed similar results for profitability, tangibility and inertia of established financial structures (as in Slovene sample). Interestingly, our newly introduced expanatory variables managed to observe the influence of financing costs (companies paying higher average interests had a lower level of long-term debt) and financial inflexibility (companies with higher financial inflexibility wil have higher long-term debt levels). Based on our results we assume that the financial structure of an SME is predominantly determined at the begi