BUSINESS CYCLE EFFECTS ON RATING FIRMS

Iz ekonomske zgodovine je razvidno, da gospodarstvo nikoli ne raste v ravni črti. Država lahko uživa nekaj let ekonomske rasti in širitve, vendar bo temu gotovo sledil preobrat. Gospodarska rast se bo spremenila v padec — recesijo, ki se lahko nadaljuje v finančno krizo ali celo daljšo depresijo. Takrat narodni proizvod pade, prav tako dobički, nezaposlenost pa se dvigne. Ko je doseženo dno, se postopek ponovi v obratni smeri — začne se oživljanje. Le-to je lahko hitro ali počasno. Lahko je to obdobje spodbujenega povpraševanja, obilice delovnih mest in dviga življenjskih standardov. Ali pa je to hiter skok s prisotno visoko inflacijo, povezano s špekulacijo, kar spet vodi v naslednjo krizo. Takšnemu značilnemu gibanju (naraščanje in padanje) outputa, inflacije, obrestnih mer in zaposlenosti pravimo poslovni cikli in so prisotni v vseh tržnih gospodarstvih. Kaj sploh je poslovni cikel? Poslovni cikel je preobrat v skupnem narodnem outputu, prihodku in zaposlenosti, ki ponavadi traja od 2 do 10 let in je zaznamovan z obsežnim krčenjem ali širitvijo v večini sektorjev v gospodarstvu. Ekonomisti delijo poslovne cikle na dva glavna dela — fazi. To sta obdobje recesije in obdobje rasti, oživljanja. Skrajni točki med eno in drugo sta vrh in dno. Recesija je pogosto definirana kot obdobje, v katerem realni BDP pada v dveh zaporednih četrtletjih. Recesija se začne v vrhu in konča na dnu. Recesiji sledi rast in obratno. Vzorec poslovnih ciklov je nepravilen. Niti dva poslovna cikla nista popolnoma enaka. Nobena formula ne obstaja, po kateri bi lahko predvideli intenziteto ali časovno določili poslovne cikle. Vse ostrejša konkurenca, ki jo je prinesla globalizacija, soočanje podjetij z vedno večjimi tveganji ter iskanje priložnosti ob obvladovanju tveganj v času recesije, kot tudi ekspanzije je eden izmed ključnih dejavnikov uspeha današnjih podjetij. Poznavanje bonitete poslovnih partnerjev omogoča podjetju, da dovolj varno vstopa v nove poslovne odnose in stalno preverja obstoječe. Boniteta ne odvrača zgolj od poloma v poslu, marveč odkriva tudi podjetja, s katerimi je priporočljivo sodelovati. Boniteta naj bi določila verjetnost, da bo upnik dobil dogovorjeno plačilo od dolžnika. Poznavanje bonitete poslovnih partnerjev omogoča, da sklenjenih poslov po nepotrebnem ne izpostavljamo prevelikemu tveganju. V diplomski nalogi sem najprej opredelila definicije in faze pojma poslovnih ciklov, njihove lastnosti ter vzroke za njihov nastanek. V nadaljevanju same naloge sem opredelila sam pojem bonitete, njeno temeljno vlogo pri obvladovanju tveganj in predstavila, za koga je boniteta pomembna, oziroma kdo so uporabniki informacij, ki jih boniteta nudi. Izdelava bonitete podjetja s pomočjo finančnih in nefinančnih kazalnikov je tako vsebinsko kot tudi tehnično izredno zahtevno opravilo. Vso pridobljeno znanje sem nato združila in povezala v celoto, kar sem predstavila v 4. poglavju. Recesija in ekspanzija sta dve glavni fazi v ekonomskem ciklu in obe prinašata s seboj pozitivne, kot tudi negativne strani poslovanja podjetij z obzirom na boniteto podjetij.From economic history shows that the economy will never grow in a straight line. A country may enjoy a few years of economic growth and expansion, but will certainly follow this shift. Economic growth will turn into a fall - a recession that may come into a financial crisis or even a long depression. National product then falls, as well as earnings and unemployment rises. When it reaches the bottom, the procedure is repeated in reverse - beginning resuscitation. This renewal can be fast or slow. This can be stimulated demand period, a plethora of jobs and rising living standards. Or is it a quick hop to the present high inflation associated with speculation, which in turn leads to the next crisis. Typical for such a movement (rising and falling) output, inflation, interest rates and the employment rules of business cycles, which are present in all market economies. What is a business cycle? The business cycle is turning in the total National outputs, income and employment, which usually lasts from 2 to 10 years and is characterized by extensive contraction or expansion in most sectors of the economy. Economists divided on the business cycles of two main parts - the stage. This was a period of recession and a period of growth, regeneration. The extreme points of between one and another the top and bottom. A recession is often defined as the period during which real GDP declines for two consecutive quarters. A recession begins and ends at the top to the bottom. Growth followed by recession and vice versa. A model of business cycles is incorrect. No two business cycles are not completely identical. There is no formula by which it can predict the intensity or time-specific business cycles. Any increased competition brought about by globalization, businesses face the growing risks and look for opportunities at risk in times of recession, as well as the expansion is one of the key success factors of today\u27s businesses. Knowledge of rating business partners allows the company to be sufficiently safe entry into new business relationships and keep under review existing ones. Rating alone does not dissuade from the poles in the business, but also reveals a company, which is recommended to participate. Rating is expected to set the probability that a creditor will receive the agreed payment from the debtor. Knowledge of credit allows business partners to deal unnecessarily expose to excessive risk. In this thesis I first identified the definition and concept of business cycle phases, their characteristics and reasons for their occurrence. The following tasks I have identified themselves very concept of credit, its fundamental role in risk management and present, for whom the credit rating of importance, or who are the users of the information provided by credit rating. Making the rating companies through financial and non-financial indicators, both substantively and technically very demanding task. All this knowledge I then merged together into a whole, which I presented in the 4th chapter. Recession and expansion are two main phases in the economic cycle and bring with them both positive and negative business side view of the creditworthiness of companies