Application of Technical Analysis on Ljubljana Stock Exchange

Tehnična analiza se ukvarja s predvidevanjem prihodnosti. Četudi prihodnjega gibanja tečajev ne more napovedati nihče, ne gre pri pravilni uporabi tehnične analize in ob upoštevanju načel upravljanja z denarnimi sredstvi za hazardiranje. Trgovanje, pri katerem povečujemo verjetnost, da se bo tečaj obrnil v našo korist, imenujemo premišljena investicija. Začetki tehnične analize segajo daleč v preteklost, a se je njena prava moč pokazala komaj z razvojem zmogljivejših računalnikov, ki lahko procesirajo velike količine podatkov v zanemarljivo kratkem času. Je pripomoček za ocenjevanje psihološkega stanja udeležencev na borznih parketih, katerega rezultate je potrebno jemati z distanco, kadar se tečaji delnic obrnejo v neželeno smer. Empirični del, v katerem smo preizkušali uporabnost tehnične analize na ljubljanski borzi, je pokazal, da je s pravilnim pristopom mogoče doseči donose, ki presegajo donose pasivne strategije kupi in drži. Res pa je, da sama uporabe tehnične analize še nikakor ne zagotavlja uspeha. Vse trgovalne strategije in indikatorje je potrebno predhodno preizkusiti in ugotoviti ali so primerni za določen trg, saj že majhne razlike v njihovih nastavitvah lahko odločajo ali bomo iz trga izstopili kot zmagovalec ali kot poraženec. Ker noben trgovalni sistem ni popoln, je potrebno za dolgoročni uspeh uporabljati zaščitne točke. Te določajo mejo med še sprejemljivim tveganjem in nepotrebno izgubo. Menimo, da je tehnična analiza za trgovanje na slovenskem trgu koristen pripomoček, ki bo z nadaljnjim razvojem borze in njenih udeležencev še pridobival na pomenu.The sole purpose of technical analysis is to be able to predict market\u27s behavior, which doesn\u27t mean to describe exact path of any specific stock value. It\u27s methods along with guidelines describing money management ensure that technical analysis minimizes the factor of luck when dealing with money markets. Any type of investment approach that increases the probability of success is called rational investment. Beginnings of technical analysis can be traced to early investment strategies but it\u27s value and strength increased greatly with introduction of super fast computing platforms that can process enormous amounts of data in relatively short period of time. It serves as a tool to asses psychological state of market investors. Caution should be exercised when interpreting its results especially when the market turns negative. Empirical part addressing usefulness of technical analysis predicting behavior of Ljubljana\u27s stock market shows, that right approach helps in achieving higher rates of return compared to a passive strategy of buy and hold. It has to be emphasized that sole use of technical analysis does not guarantee a success. Each and every trading strategy and indicator have to be thoroughly testes and examined to establish their suitability since even the smallest discrepancies in their setting can mean the difference between a winner and a loser. No trading system is perfect therefore safeguards have to be established in order to increase the probability of long term success. Those safeguards define the line of acceptable risks. We believe that technical analysis can be a useful tool to be used when trading on Slovenian markets that will with further market development only increase in value