車牌號碼有關係嗎？：以自用小客車車體損失保險為例 Does Plate Number Matter? An Example of Private Automobile Physical Damage Insurance.

[[abstract]]本研究利用台灣某產險公司機動車輛車體損失險之承保與出險資料，以羅吉斯迴歸模式探討選購吉祥車牌號碼是否會影響自用小客車車體損失險之出險機率。本研究結果顯示，若不考慮其他變數，車主是否選購吉祥車牌號碼是自用小客車車體損失險之出險的顯著影響因素。有選購吉祥車牌號碼之自用小客車出險率顯著地高於一般車牌號碼之自用小客車。但在納入傳統車體損失險費率釐訂因素之羅吉斯迴歸模式下，顯示自用小客車車體損失險之出險機率受從人因素(性別、年齡、肇事紀錄)和從車因素(汽車廠牌、車齡、汽車型式、排氣量)之影響，而與車主是否選購吉祥車牌號碼無關。車主挑選車牌號碼僅具有心理作用，並不會因此降低自用小客車車體損失險之出險機率。 In this study, referring to data of automobile physical damage insurance in 2007 of a non-life insurance company in Taiwan, we investigate whether the claim probability of automobile insurance is affected by the lucky-plate-number or not. Our research results reveal that claim probability of automobile physical damage insurance is affected by personal factors (gender, age, accident records) and automobile factors (car brand, vehicle age, vehicle type, engine displacement), and not related with car plate number. The lucky-plate-number has only the psychological effect for car owners, and did not reduce the claim probability of automobile physical damage insurance