Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach

In this paper, given recent theoretical developments that inflation can exhibit long memory properties due to the output growth process, we propose a new class of bivariate processes to simultaneously investigate the dual long memory properties in the mean and the conditional variance of inflation and output growth series. We estimate the model using monthly UK data and document the presence of dual long memory properties in both series. Then, using the conditional variances generated from our bivariate model, we employ Granger causality tests to scrutinize the linkages between the means and the volatilities of inflation and output growth.