This paper suggests a new factor that makes civil war more likely: the inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society. Lacking this ability, both elected and unelected governments pursue public policies that leave citizens less well-off and more prone to revolt. At the same time, these actors have a reduced ability to build an anti-insurgency capacity in the first place, since they are less able to prevent anti-insurgents from themselves mounting coups. But while reducing the risk of conflict overall, increasing credibility can, over some range, worsen the effects of natural resources and ethnic fragmentation on civil war. Empirical tests using various measures of political credibility support these con...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DO...
In India, Nigeria, and Iraq, the government has invested in the capacity of PGMs despite the associa...
Why do most civil wars occur in a relatively small number of countries? We answer this question by a...
The inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society--a previous...
Theories of mobilization suggest that groups are more likely to resort to violence in the presence ...
This paper investigates civil conflict as a product of the survival strategies of African leaders. S...
A notable feature of post-World War II civil wars is their very long average duration. We provide a ...
How does the state's behavior in negotiations with one non-state group influence the behavior of oth...
This paper develops a bargaining model that explains why political power-sharing agreements lead to ...
What is the role of political behavior in shaping the dynamics of conflict? World Politics models of...
Previous large-N studies on conflict lethality have focused in large part either on structural facto...
Political leaders face threats to their power from both within and outside the regime. Leaders can b...
My research investigates the repercussions of protracted civil wars on bystanders’ political and soc...
Previous research has shown that the outcome of a civil war is related to conflict duration: militar...
Weary of the costs and condemnation associated with large-scale military intervention, countries inc...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DO...
In India, Nigeria, and Iraq, the government has invested in the capacity of PGMs despite the associa...
Why do most civil wars occur in a relatively small number of countries? We answer this question by a...
The inability of political actors to make credible promises to broad segments of society--a previous...
Theories of mobilization suggest that groups are more likely to resort to violence in the presence ...
This paper investigates civil conflict as a product of the survival strategies of African leaders. S...
A notable feature of post-World War II civil wars is their very long average duration. We provide a ...
How does the state's behavior in negotiations with one non-state group influence the behavior of oth...
This paper develops a bargaining model that explains why political power-sharing agreements lead to ...
What is the role of political behavior in shaping the dynamics of conflict? World Politics models of...
Previous large-N studies on conflict lethality have focused in large part either on structural facto...
Political leaders face threats to their power from both within and outside the regime. Leaders can b...
My research investigates the repercussions of protracted civil wars on bystanders’ political and soc...
Previous research has shown that the outcome of a civil war is related to conflict duration: militar...
Weary of the costs and condemnation associated with large-scale military intervention, countries inc...
This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DO...
In India, Nigeria, and Iraq, the government has invested in the capacity of PGMs despite the associa...
Why do most civil wars occur in a relatively small number of countries? We answer this question by a...