Forest carbon sequestration scenarios and priorities for the Russian Federation action plan

The transitional nature of the Russian economy and the serious problems it has created -- shortage of funds; absence of well-defined legislation, rules, and standards; absence of adequate control systems; weak transport infrastructure, and export problems -- hinder the development of a forestry mitigation strategy. Assessments of economic possibilities and short- and medium-term mitigation measures show that the focus of forestry mitigation strategies should be to improve and promote the current carbon sequestration activities. One baseline forestry scenario and four other scenarios were developed for the period 2000-2040. Each scenario includes all forested areas but provides separate analyses of thirty "forestry eco-regions." Three types of forest management are included in the scenarios: clear-cut logging and reforestation, selective logging and thinning, and measures to prevent and manage fires. The baseline scenario results in a constant net sink of about 150 MtC/yr. Increasing clear-cut logging using current forestry practices will cause a rapid drop in the net sink. A modest increase in clear-cut logging together with active forest fire and selective logging measures could lead to a slight increase in the net sink. Based on these scenarios, regional forestry priorities are identified for Russia's Climate Change Action Plan. The priorities by region include: (i) creating economic mechanisms to increase forestry effectiveness in the logging areas now being cut, (ii) providing assistance for natural reforestation for the European-Ural region, (iii) promoting a forest fire protection system for Central and Northeast Siberia, and (iv) limiting clear-cut logging and creating a market for forestry efficiency in South Siberia and Primorie and Priamurie.