Análise de market-share e fontes de variação das exportações brasileiras de soja

The objective of this work is to determine factors that explain the alteration of the participation of the Brazilian soybean agro-industry and industry in the international trade. Particularly, it intends to analyze the Brazilian competitiveness in the exports of each segment of the soybean agro-industry. For this, the Constant-Market-Share (CMS) model was used, through which, the discrepancies were computed in the potential and effectual variation of the Brazilian exports of soybeans, soybean meal and oil, disaggregating them in these components: market size, market distribution and competitiveness. The market size was shown positive for the three analyzed segments, demonstrating that the expansion of the world demand of soybean and its by-products it was fundamental factor to the growth of the Brazilian exports. The effect market distribution was negative, indicating that there are inefficiencies in the commercialization channels of the Brazilian of soybean agro-industry. The competitiveness, for its time, was only positive for the soy exports in grain. However, it stands out that the positive impact of the competitiveness, in the soy segment in grain compensated more in monetary values than the negative impacts in the soybean meal and oil segments. In that way, are necessary government politics that improve the infrastructure and, consequently, reduce the costs for improvement of the competitiveness in the soybean meal and oil segments.Constant-Market-Share, Competitiveness, Exports, Soybean, Brazil, International Relations/Trade,