Febre aftosa e volatilidade dos preços do produtor de carne suína

FMD focuses were found again in Brazil in 2004 and 2005, which caused embargo for Brazilian exports of pork meat. This paper investigates the volatility of prices received by pig producers after the FMD focus were found. Using a GARCH model, including a variable indicating FMD events, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the disease caused high pork price volatility. The conclusion is the FMD disease is related not only to losses due to embargoes but also to the increase of pork price volatility, which brings about instability to businesses and to pig producers income.Foot and mouth disease, Pork, Volatility, GARCH, Demand and Price Analysis,