Population Ageing and the Labour Market: Evidence from Italy

Individual data from eight waves of the European Community Household Panel are used to investigate the impact of cohort size on age-earnings and employment profiles of Italian male workers. Evidence that over the life cycle cohort size depresses employment opportunities of men with low education and earnings and employment rates of men with intermediate and high qualifications born into large cohorts is found. These results are used to carry out a simple simulation where the average future wages of Italian male workers are projected for the next 4.5 decades. According to this simulation, the wages of Italian male workers will follow a hump-shaped pattern in the next three decades, before slightly increasing again. Copyright 2009 CEIS, Fondazione Giacomo Brodolini and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.