A binary choice severance selection model for the removal of offshore structures in the Gulf of Mexico

The severance techniques employed to decommission an offshore structure will depend on the outcome of a risk-based comparative assessment involving cost, safety, technical, environmental, operational and managerial considerations. The purpose of this paper is to describe the factors involved in the decision to use explosive/nonexplosive severance methods, to quantify the probability that a structure will be removed with explosive technology, and to develop a predictive model of the decision to use explosive methods. An empirical analysis of oil and gas structures removed in the Gulf of Mexico between 1986 and 2001 provide the historic data required to compute the probability of an explosive removal and to estimate binary choice models for severance selection. Binomial logit and probit models of severance selection are constructed to establish the relationship between a set of attributes describing a structure and the probability that a particular severance technique will be employed. The results of the binary choice models and the limitations of quantitative modeling are summarized.Decision analysis Decommissioning Explosive severance Offshore structures Regulatory environment