Examination of the Regional Supply and Demand Balance for Renewable Electricity in the United States Through 2015: Projecting From 2009 Through 2015 (Revised)

This report examines the balance between the demand and supply of new renewable electricity in the United States on a regional basis through 2015. It expands on a 2007 NREL study (Swezey et al. 2007) that assessed the supply and demand balance on a national basis. As with the earlier study, this analysis relies on estimates of renewable energy supplies compared to demand for renewable energy generation needed to meet existing state renewable portfolio standard (RPS) policies in 28 states, as well as demand by consumers who voluntarily purchase renewable energy. However, it does not address demand by utilities that may procure cost-effective renewables through an integrated resource planning process or otherwise. The analysis examines two supply scenarios: 1) a business as usual (BAU) scenario based on current growth rates in renewable energy supply in each region and 2) a market-based scenario that differs only in an assumed higher overall level of wind energy development nationally (based on estimates from BTM Consult and referred to as “high wind case”). Because the BTM Consult (2008) projections are only available nationally, and are not broken out regionally, this analysis uses results from a recent study by DOE (DOE 2008) that presents a scenario of 20% wind energy penetration by 2030 to apportion the wind energy capacity by region