Cash Ethanol Cross-Hedging Opportunities

This draft is dated April 2002.Increased use of alternative fuels and low commodity prices have contributed to the recent expansion of the US ethanol industry. As with any competitive industry, there exists some level of output price risk in the form of volatility. Yet, no actively traded ethanol futures market exists to mitigate output price risk. This study reports estimated minimum variance cross-hedge ratios between Detroit spot cash ethanol and the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) unleaded gasoline futures for 1-, 4-, 8-, 12-, 16-, 20-, 24-, and 28-week hedge horizons. The research suggests that a one-to-one cross-hedge ratio is not appropriate for some horizons