A Decision Model For Evaluation Of Energy Sources For The Electricity Generation For The Case Of Turkey

Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2012Thesis (M.Sc.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Science and Technology, 2012Bilindiği üzere enerji, hayat kalitesini iyileştiren, ekonomik ve sosyal ilerlemeyi sağlayan en önemli faktördür. Ülkemiz, kalkınma hedeflerini gerçekleştirme, toplumsal refahı artırma ve sanayi sektörünü uluslararası alanda rekabet edebilecek bir düzeye çıkarma çabası içindedir. Bu durum, enerji talebinde uzun yıllardır hızlı bir artışı beraberinde getirmektedir. Önümüzdeki yıllarda da bu eğilimin devam edeceği hesaplanmaktadır. Türkiye için en temel sorunlarından bir tanesi, elektrik üretim miktarının arttırılması için en etkin enerji politikasının saptanmasıdır. Bu konuda yapılmış olan çalışmaların işaret ettiği üzere, uygun enerji kaynağının seçilmesi kapsamlı ve çok boyutlu bir analizi gerekli kılmaktadır. Yenilenebilir ve yenilenebilir olmayan enerji kaynaklarının değerlendirilmesi, ülkelerin içinde bulunduğu çevresel, politik, coğrafi şartlardan bağımsız ele alınamaz. Örneğin bulunduğu konum itibariyle yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının büyük çoğunluğu coğrafi ve çevresel faktörlere bağımlıdırlar. Ya da doğalgaza dayalı bir santralin işletme sürekliliğini, ülkenin politik istikrarı ya da enerji kaynağının arz güvenliğinden bağımsız ele almak olanaksızdır. Bu bağlamda, her ülke, içerisinde bulunduğu coğrafi ve politik durumları göz önüne alarak enerji politikasını bağımsız bir şekilde kurgulamak durumundadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de elektrik üretimi için kullanılacak yakıt türlerinin seçimi ve sıralanması problemi ele alınmıştır. Çok kriterli karar verme yöntemlerinden AHS (Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci) ve TOPSIS (İdeal Çözümlere Benzerliğe Göre Tercihlerin Sıralanması Yöntemi) yöntemleri birlikte en uygun enerji politikasının belirlenmesi amacıyla uygulanmıştır. Öncelikle modelde kullanılacak olan seçenekler ve kriterlerin belirlenmesi aşamasında kapsamlı bir literatür araştırması yapılmıştır. Yapılan araştırma sonucunda yenilenebilir ve yenilenebilir olmayan olmak üzere toplamda 9 yakıt türü modelde değerlendirilmeye tabii tutulmuştur. Hidroelektrik, rüzgar, güneş, biyokütle ve jeotermal yakıt türleri yenilenebilir enerji kapsamında; nükleer, kömür&linyit, petrol ve doğalgaz ise yenilenebilir olmayan enerji kapsamında değerlendirilmiştir. Seçeneklerin belirlenmesi aşamasından sonra, kapsamlı bir literatür çalışması ardından daha önceki çalışmalarda ele alınan ana kriterler ve kriterler gruplandırılmıştır. Ardından ise Türkiye örneği göz önünde bulundurularak, karar modelinde kullanılacak 6 ana kriter ve 18 kriter belirlenmiştir. Kriterler ve seçeneklerin belirlenmesinden sonra uygulama aşamasında uzmanlara sorulmak üzere anket oluşturulmuştur. İki bölümden oluşan anketin birinci bölümü ana kriter ve kriterlerin nispi ağırlıklarının hesaplanmasına imkan sağlarken, ikinci bölümü ise her bir seçeneğin ilgili kriterlere göre değerlendirilmesine olanak sağlamaktadır. AHS yöntemi ana kriterler ve alt kriterlerin önem derecesinin belirlenmesi için, TOPSIS yöntemi ise tedarikçilerin sıralanması için kullanılmıştır. AHS yönteminde kriter ağırlıkları ve tutarsızlık oranları Super Decisions programı ile elde edilmiştir. TOPSIS yönteminin adımları için Microsoft Excel hesaplamalarından yararlanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda biyokütle enerjisi en çok tercih edilen yakıt türü olarak seçilmiştir. Geriye kalan sıralama ise sırasıyla; hidroelektrik enerjisi, kömür&linyit, nükleer enerji, jeotermal enerji, rüzgar enerjisi, güneş enerjisi, petrol ve doğalgaz olarak belirlenmiştir.As is known, energy is the most important factor that increases the quality of life and enables the economic and social progress. In Turkey, the growing population, industrialization and increasing standard of living have considerably increased the dependence on imported energy. Consequently, in addition to the development of conventional energy resources, exploitation of non-conventional energy resources and energy conservation has become inevitable. Like every country, Turkey is in a struggle for reaching the development targets, increasing social wealth and making the industry sector competitive in international area. This effort brings the increase in energy demand year by year. Additionally, it is believed that this tendency will continue in the coming years. However, there is a question still stands to be answered; how will we generate electricity when we run out of coal, oil, and natural gas, or when the demand for electricity is greater than that generated by solar cells, wind power, or hydroelectric dams? To find out the appropriate energy source combination to use in the following years, one of the decision-making methods is utilized this thesis. From this point of view, it is obvious that a major problem Turkey faces now is to find the most suitable way of obtaining additional electrical power. There is a conflict between the economic and environmental value of the alternatives. The conventional fuels such as coal and oil are less attractive energy resources if they are evaluated from an environmental point of view. Renewable energy resources that are generally seen as suitable substitutes for conventional resources, however, differ in their capacities for power generation, suitability of potential site, sustainability and stability of energy resource, etc. Additionally, renewable technologies are generally coming with relatively high capital costs and low operation and maintenance costs. These characteristics make them attractive in the long run, but less attractive in a competitive setting where the premium is on cost minimization. Therefore, the appropriate selection of an electricity generation resource necessitates a multi-attribute evaluation of the electricity generation systems. In this study, a multi-criteria decision model is addressed for the evaluation and ranking of the energy sources for the electricity generation for the case of Turkey. To determine the most appropriate energy policy, the multi-criteria decision making techniques AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) are applied to the model. This study consists of 6 sections. In section 1, the introduction part in which a brief summary of the thesis is given. The second section analyses the current state of electricity production in Turkey and World and plans for the future.In this part, sources of electricity generation are analyzed and the generation ratios of each resource, electricity consumption per capita are given year by year. For the future, the projected electricity consumption and generation values are discussed. According to these values, potential scenarios for the Turkey and World are underlined. In section 3, all the potential energy resources are described in detail after a comprehensive literature review. These resources are classified in two groups which are renewable and nonrenewable. For the renewable resources, hydroelectricity energy, wind energy, solar energy, biomass and geothermal energy are evaluated. For the nonrenewable resources, nuclear energy, coal & lignite, petroleum and natural gas are evaluated. All the mentioned resources are explained according to the several factors such as environmental, economic, political criteria. The fourth section shows the criteria that are used to evaluate the alternative energy resources from different perspectives and provides a detailed evaluation of all the resources considered. First all the main criteria and sub-criteria are grouped after a comprehensive literature review. To determine the final criteria list for the case of Turkey, some criteria are removed by receiving the expert opinions. According to the final list, there are 7 main criteria and 18 criteria. The main criteria are formed as; physical aspects, environmental aspects, economic aspects, uncontrolled conditions, efficiency, technological aspects and socio-political aspects. Under each of these main criteria, sub-criteria are existed. The fifth section shows the application of the suggested model and the findings. Firstly, the integrated approach formed with AHP and TOPSIS methods are explained. After that the application part is introduced. In application phase, a survey with two sections is created. For the survey part, 8 expert who are from academic and private sector are identified. For the academic platform, one of the experts is from Industrial Engineering Department from the Management Faculty of İstanbul Technical University, the other three experts are from the Energy Institute of İstanbul Technical University. The remaining four experts are from private sector. But these ones are also postgraduate students in the Energy Institute in İstanbul Technical University. After the survey is carried out, the geometric means of the survey results are entered into Super Decisions program to get the weights of the each main criteria and sub-criteria by the aid of AHP method. In the second part of the survey, each of the energy alternativesis evaluated with respect to each criterion. TOPSIS method is used to rank the energy resources and determine the most appropriate one for the Turkey. Microsoft Excel software are used to handle the calculations which are necessary for TOPSIS method, Finally in the sixth section, conclusions and further suggestions are given. The results show that biomass is the most exciting alternative to resolve Turkey’s electricity generation problem in the future. In worldwide, within the scope of CO2 emission, there is a great attention to renewable resources due to the anxiety of global warming. When biomass is compared to the other renewable resources, reasonable cost levels make it attractive. From this point of view, it will be advantageous for Turkey to make investment plans and encouragement programs about the power plants which will use biomass fuel. Hydroelectricity source is ranked as second according to the study. Some characteristic like fully renewable, no harmful gases emission and compatibility with the national energy policies make it second in the ranking list. Coal & Lignite and nuclear resources are ranked as third and fourth respectively. Actually the ranking of these two conventional resources is somewhat different from the previous studies for the case of Turkey. As it is understood, the importance levels given by experts for the environmental and operations risks make them reasonable sources. The remaining ranking is as follows; geothermal, wind, solar, natural gas and petroleum. This study can contribute to the authorities to identify the right priorities during determining the national energy policy. In further studies, the survey can be carried out with more than 8 experts, and the working areas of experts can be enlarged. When experts from different major areas participate to the study (i.e. engineers, people from public, government, etc.) more reliable results can be obtained. Moreover, the results of this study may be compared with the results of other MCDM methods like ELECTRE, PROMETHEE, or VIKOR.Yüksek LisansM.Sc