An examination of recidivism in a population of Canadian sex offenders.

This study examined estimates and predictors of recidivism of 587 convicted male sex offenders who had been assessed at the Sexual Behaviors Clinic (SBC) and who were followed over a 20 year period. Subjects were grouped into three broad categories based on the index offense: (1) 85 offenders against female adults (rapists); (2) 206 extrafamilial child molesters (CM); and (3) 295 incest offenders. Demographic information, historical variables, characteristics of the index offence, and clinical information were collected from medical records. Offense data were collected from Canadian Police Information Center (CPIC) records. The percentage of rapists, CM, and incest offenders who re-offended sexually over the 20 year period was 24.4, 22.8, and 9.8, respectively. The percentage of rapist, CM, and incest offenders that recidivated violently was 37.2, 34.0, and, 20.0, respectively. The percentage of rapists, CM, and incest offenders that committed any new offense was 56.4, and 46.1, 27.5, respectively. The CM group appeared to take the longest to re-offend sexually and violently, and seemed to be at greatest risk to reoffend 10 to 15 years following release. Offenders who committed a new sexual offence, new violent offence, or any new offence were differentiated by means of univariate analyses. Age of offender, historical criminal factors (e.g., age at first offense, history of prior offenses), and scores on the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised repeatedly differentiated between recidivists and non-recidivists. Stepwise logistic regression analysis assessed which factors were useful in predicting sexual recidivism and violent recidivism. Sexual recidivism among rapists was best predicted by never being married at time of assessment and the presence of historical charges, whereas violent recidivism was best predicted by marital status, childhood history, historical criminal charges, and psychopathy. Sexual recidivism among CM was predicted by the number of years of education, high level of force during the initial offence, arousal to deviant and violent activities with children, historical offences, and psychopathy. Violent recidivism was predicted by the age of the offender at the time of assessment, years of education, historical offences, and psychopathy. Sexual recidivism among the incest group was predicted by the offender's age, an index of his alcohol use during his index offence, and the degree of psychopathy. Violent recidivism was predicted by the combination of the offender's age, family history of alcoholism, alcohol use at time of index offence, age when criminal history began, general alcohol use, and psychopathy. Implications of findings and suggestions for future directions of sex offender research are presented