The predictive validity of the Portuguese method of selecting students for higher education

It is now a well established fact, in both theoretical and empirical grounds, that higher education is a key factor for personal enrichment and for a country's economic and social development. However, most higher education systems still restrict access to public higher education to some percentage of applicants. This may be due to rigidities in the system, pressures from the private sector, ideological views that higher education should be restricted to an elite or, more frequently, to governmental financial constraints. It is therefore important to choose a selection process that ensures access to those more suitable to benefit from higher education, more apt to acquire the competencies provided by a higher education programme, in order to guarantee a more efficient allocation of scarce resources. Each country has adopted a different selection process, centralised or organised by region or institution, based on the results from secondary school, on specifically designed exams or on interviews. This paper assesses the adequacy of the selection process adopted in Portugal during the last decade. This is still a relatively unexplored research topic, but is of extreme importance for higher education institutions and policy makers, to improve the rationality of the allocation of resources and to promote the social and economic development of the country