Risk Premium and Expectations in Higher Education

This paper takes the risk of college participation into context when evaluating the return to college education. College dropout and a higher permanent income shock for those who graduate from college accounts for 51% of the excess return to college education. Using a simple risk premium approach, I reconcile the observed high average returns to schooling with relatively low attendance rates. A high dropout risk has two important effects on the estimated average returns to college education: via selection bias and via risk premium.