Impact of Nonrandom Mating on Genetic Variance and Gene Flow in Populations with Mass Selection

The mechanisms by which nonrandom mating affects selected populations are not completely understood and remain a subject of scientific debate in the development of tractable predictors of population characteristics. The main objective of this study was to provide a predictive model for the genetic variance and covariance among mates for traits subjected to directional selection in populations with nonrandom mating based on the pedigree. Stochastic simulations were used to check the validity of this model. Our predictions indicate that the positive covariance among mates that is expected to result with preferential mating of relatives can be severely overpredicted from neutral expectations. The covariance expected from neutral theory is offset by an opposing covariance between the genetic mean of an individual's family and the Mendelian sampling term of its mate. This mechanism was able to predict the reduction in covariance among mates that we observed in the simulated populations and, in consequence, the equilibrium genetic variance and expected long-term genetic contributions. Additionally, this study provided confirmatory evidence on the postulated relationships of long-term genetic contributions with both the rate of genetic gain and the rate of inbreeding ({Delta}F) with nonrandom mating. The coefficient of variation of the expected gene flow among individuals and {Delta}F was sensitive to nonrandom mating when heritability was low, but less so as heritability increased, and the theory developed in the study was sufficient to explain this phenomenon