Understanding how farmers last over the long term: a typology of trajectories of change in farming systems. A French case-study

In the current context of market fluctuation on agricultural products prices, European agriculture is endangered. In hilly areas, the orientation of CAP policy promoting specialization added to an always increasing lack of work forces challenges the future of farms. Nevertheless, farmers found how to adapt to local context to last on the long term. In this study, we try to assess the diversity of the adaptative strategies developed by farmers to last in analyzing their trajectories of change. Our study aims to understand the variety in trajectories of farms from 1950 up to now. We applied an integrated approach to the farm population of a case-study site, in the Coteaux de Gascogne. In this hilly region of south-western France, agriculture maintained with a limited specialization of production. We made a survey of the history of every farms working land in an area of about 4000 ha. We used a two steps-analysis including : (i) a manual assessment of the trajectory of each farm and (ii) a typology of farm trajectories build on a combination of multivariate analysis on a set of data composed by 20 variables for 50 farms on 10-year steps. The interpretation of the types was based on the results of the manual assessment. The resulting 6 types of trajectories reflect different objectives and strategies. Farmers found different “paths to last” in a same local context (environmental, political and economic). In two types of trajectories, farmers became specialized, in the other ones, farmers maintained more traditional systems, based on a crop-livestock association. This typology was validated by local farmers. Our results stress out the importance to understand the systemic functioning of farms to study local change in agricultural systems. In a next step of our study these results will be used in a participatory future process with local stakeholders, through co-constructed prospective scenarios