Climate Change Impact on Flood Hazard in the Grand River Basin, Ontario, Canada

Rapidly changing climatic conditions across the globe are believed to have an impact on key climate variables and the hydrologic cycle. Changes in magnitude and frequency of peak flow patterns have been noted in rivers worldwide. The associated risk is projected to increase many folds during the 21st century. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify these impacts for effective water resource planning and management in future. Methodology chosen to do so should be able to capture variations in climate variables at fine temporal, spatial and distributional scales. Also, it should be able to cover uncertainties associated with future climatic, socio-economic and physiographic projections. In this study, a methodology for making future flow projections has been presented and applied to the Grand River basin, Ontario, Canada. Results indicate consistent decreases in peak flows across the catchment for all the scenarios considered in the analysis