Economic growth, renewable energy and CO2 emissions: the Kaya identity and the environmental Kuznets curve

This contribution presents a model for estimating CO2 emissions in a given country for a near future. The model is based on a modification of the Kaya identity that allows to connect gross domestic product, productive sectoral structure, energy matrix, and energy intensity with CO2 emissions. A key point in the model will be the introduction of a feedback mechanism involving the use of renewable energy. We will analyze the results on the light of the so-called environmental Kuznets curve. The model will be applied to the case of Ecuador and to the time period 2011-2015.This work has been supported by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad and the European regional development fund (FEDER) under project number FIS2011-28738-C02-02. One of the authors (A.R.L.) gives special thanks to the SENESCYT (Ecuador) and the AUIP (Spain) for the institutional and financial support