The Role of the Military for Democratization during the Arab Spring - the cases of Tunisia, Egypt and Syria

Popular uprising against authoritarian regimes is not enough to allow transitiontowards democracy to begin. The military has the final word on whether such an uprisingwill be successful or the uprising will be repressed in order to preserve the incumbentdictatorship. The military supported the uprising in Tunisia while it sided withthe regime and repressed the uprising in Syria. In Egypt did the military refrain fromsupporting the regime and took over power themselves. Why did the military act so differentlyin the three cases? The article propose a theoretical explanation which combinesvariables influencing whether the military has the potential to support a popularuprising or not; and if there is a political situation, which allows for this potential to beexploited. The model of explanation is then tested against the cases of Tunisia, Egyptand Syria during The Arab Spring.Popular uprising against authoritarian regimes is not enough to allow transition towards democracy to begin. The military has the final word on whether such an uprising will be successful or the uprising will be repressed in order to preserve the incumbent dictatorship. The military supported the uprising in Tunisia while it sided with the regime and repressed the uprising in Syria. In Egypt did the military refrain from supporting the regime and took over power themselves. Shy did the military act so differently in the three cases? The article propose a theoretical explanation which combines variables influencing whether the military has the potential to support a popular uprising or not; and if the there is a political situation, which allows for this potential to be exploited. The model of explanation is then tested against the cases of Tunisia, Egypt and Syria during The Arab Spring