Markov Model of Wind Power Time Series UsingBayesian Inference of Transition Matrix

This paper proposes to use Bayesian inference of transition matrix when developing a discrete Markov model of a wind speed/power time series and 95% credible interval for the model verification. The Dirichlet distribution is used as a conjugate prior for the transition matrix. Three discrete Markov models are compared, i.e. the basic Markov model, the Bayesian Markov model and the birth-and-death Markov model. The proposed Bayesian Markov model shows the best accuracy in modeling the autocorrelation of the wind power time series.This paper proposes to use Bayesian inference of transition matrix when developing a discrete Markov model of a wind speed/power time series and 95% credible interval for the model verification. The Dirichlet distribution is used as a conjugate prior for the transition matrix. Three discrete Markov models are compared, i.e. the basic Markov model, the Bayesian Markov model and the birth-and-death Markov model. The proposed Bayesian Markov model shows the best accuracy in modeling the autocorrelation of the wind power time series