Mind the implementation gap: a systems analysis of the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan to increase the number of doctors trained in the UK raises many questions

BACKGROUND: The National Health Service (NHS) in England is facing a workforce crisis. A new Long Term Workforce Plan (LTWP) seeks to address this, setting out ambitious proposals to expand and reform domestic medical education and training in England. However, there are concerns about their feasibility. SOURCES OF DATA: In September 2023, over 60 individuals representing medical education and training in the UK participated in an exercise run by UK Medical Schools Council by using systems theory to identify risks. AREAS OF AGREEMENT: The UK does need more 'home grown' doctors, but the LTWP has important gaps, including lack of attention to postgraduate training, absence of reference to the need for more educators and capital investment and risk of inadequate clinical placement capacity, particularly in primary care settings. AREAS OF CONTROVERSY: There are unresolved differences in the understanding of a proposed medical apprenticeship model and no scheme has, as yet, been approved by the General Medical Council. Participants were unable to determine who the beneficiaries of this scheme will be (apart from the apprentices themselves). GROWING POINTS: While the LTWP represents a welcome, although overdue, commitment to address the NHS workforce crisis, we identified significant gaps that must be resolved. AREAS TIMELY FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH: First, the development of the LTWP provides a case study that adds to literature on policymaking in the UK. Second, while we only examined the expansion of medical training, the method could be applied to other parts of the LTWP. Third, a prospective evaluation of its implementation is necessary