Historical simulation of tropical cyclone tracks in Northwest Pacific

Northwest Pacific is the most active area for tropical cyclones(TCs).Intensified TCs usually cause natural disasters, leading to tremendous losses in life and property.Statistical analyses of the historical records of tropical cyclones are crucial to the risk assessment of TCs.However,current historical records of TCs are out of the requirement of a refined risk assessment in coastal area.In this study, the climatic properties (including annual frequency, location,path movement and intensity change,etc.) of TCs derived from the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship(IBTrACS) database have been analyzed,and a synthetic model of the TC tracks over Northwest Pacific has been developed.The model includes four parts: genesis model,movement model, lysis model and intensity model.The model is evaluated by comparing an ensemble of simulations to the historical records from the perspective of spatial track density,annual landfall rate and frequency distribution of maximum landfall wind speed.Results show that the model performs well according to a few of diagnostics,and the simulations and observations are statistically indistinguishable. Therefore, the model can be used to generate synthetic tropical cyclones for a refined risk assessment of TCs over Northwest Pacific,and can improve the reliability of cyclone risk disaster assessment