Future Energy Landscapes in Northern Sweden: Sustainable Transition Scenarios for Municipalities

Municipalities globally are recognizing their role in mitigating climate change and are actively working to reduce carbon emissions. This complex challenge is heightened in areas like Northern Sweden, where municipalities are adapting to accommodate new industries essential for meeting global climate targets, subsequently changing the energy landscape. The local administration must not only decarbonize existing energy use but also develop infrastructure for the new industries, all while fostering sustainable and appealing cities where residents aspire to live. However, the trajectory of these changes and the subsequent future energy requirements remain uncertain. This study aims to assist the local administration in navigating through these uncertainties and setting ambitious climate and energy targets aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement and sustainable developments. The research explores how model based scenario analysis can be improved to identify a set of relevant pathways that the municipalities can adopt by employing system analysis, energy system optimization, and scenario analysis. The study focuses on Gällivare municipality in Northern Sweden and employs the TIMES-City model to develop the energy system model of the municipality (RQ1). To identify relevant scenarios for local energy transition a framework for developing "Glocal" scenarios has been established (RQ2). These glocal scenarios incorporate global, national, and local socioeconomic trends into a coherent narrative and provide a more holistic and realistic view of potential future pathways (Paper 2). Additionally, a set of SDG indicators for evaluating the sustainability of different scenarios has been developed and applied in the model (RQ3, Paper 3). While the study focuses on Gällivare, the "glocal" scenario framework and SDG indicators developed in this research can be utilized by municipalities across the globe for identifying their climate and energy targets