Protecting isolated reptile populations outside their main area of distribution: a predictive model of the Dice snake, Natrix tessellata, distribution in the Czech Republic

Marginal populations of animals are highly susceptible to environmental pressures associated with climatic changes. Understanding their distribution and ecological requirements is, thus, essential for the development of efficient conservation strategies. The dice snake, Natrix tessellata, is listed as critically endangered in the Czech Republic. In certain regions (Bohemia and Silesia), its populations are located beyond the northern border of the continuous range of the species, while the south Moravian populations are connected to it. Based on the statewide database of the Czech Nature Conservation Agency, we created a predictive model and determined key factors influencing the species distribution. The most relevant factors were: watercourses and bodies, average annual temperatures, altitude, slope inclination and precipitation seasonality. The model fits the presence records well and is applicable in both theory and practice of the species conservation – for example, focusing faunistic research to certain areas, critical analysis of controversial presence reports and as an input for species management in the form of repatriation and introduction