The Panay-Guimaras-Negros bridge project: An assessment

Studies have shown that enormous transportation infrastructure projects recurrently underperform when actual cost and benefits are compared to to the forecasts utilized in project proposals. The projected costs have been shown to be commonly underestimated while forecasted demand, overestimated. In this research, an ambitious project in the Western Visayas region is assessed. The Panay-Guimaras-Negros Bridge Project intends to connect the islands via inter-island bridges that span a length of approximately 23 km. In this study, the PGN project is placed in the distribution of previously completed projects of the same scale and lessons are drawn from their experience. Moreover, Reference Class Forecasting is tackled in order to improve risk assessment in transportation infrastructure project proposals. if project proponent wish to reduce the level of risk from 50% to 20%, then a 12.4 billion to 29.7 billion peso increase in the proposed budget should be added in order to avoid cost overrun