A System Dynamics Approach to Assess the Impact of Policy Interventions on the Market Penetration of Micro Gas Turbines

Decentralized power generating systems, such as micro-gas turbines (MGT) for micro combined heat and power (CHP), can contribute to achieving the global energy and emission targets thanks to features like low emissions, primary energy savings, and fuel flexibility. It can also help increase the share of renewables due to its ability to easily integrate with renewable energy systems. Micro gas turbines, despite being such a promising technology, have achieved very limited market success due to barriers like high investment costs and a lack of supporting policies. The large-scale market penetration of MGT requires clear and strong policy support to achieve widespread adoption. This paper establishes a quantitative model to assess the impact of the policy measures on the long-term market penetration of MGT for the domestic micro-CHP to establish a relationship between policy parameters, economic factors, technological advancements, and the market share of MGT. The work compares five different policy scenarios for the case study of the UK market. The results demonstrate that the usual economic forces are insufficient for MGT to achieve its long-term market growth. Several combinations of direct and indirect policies are to be implemented by the regulatory authorities to promote the commercial growth of the technology. Finally, some insight into policy and decision-making in the UK for micro-CHP is provided, indicating promising policies to pursue