Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellitederived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.EEA Santa CruzFil: Mo, Lidong. Institute of Integrative Biology. ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology); SuizaFil: Zohner, Constantin M. Institute of Integrative Biology. ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology); SuizaFil: Reich, Peter B. University of Minnesota. Department of Forest Resources; Estados UnidosFil: Reich, Peter B. Western Sydney University. Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment; Australia.Fil: Reich, Peter B. University of Michigan. Institute for Global Change Biology; Estados UnidosFil: Liang, Jingjing. Purdue University. Department of Forestry and Natural Resources; Estados UnidosFil: de-Miguel, Sergio. University of Lleida. Department of Agricultural and Forest Sciences and Engineering; EspañaFil: de-Miguel, Sergio. Joint Research Unit CTFC - AGROTECNIO – CERCA; EspañaFil: Nabuurs, Gert-Jan. Wageningen University and Research; Países BajosFil: Renner, Susanne S. Washington University. Department of Biology; Estados UnidosFil: van den Hoogen, Johan. Institute of Integrative Biology. ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology); SuizaFil: Araza, Arnan. Wageningen University and Research; Países BajosFil: Herold, Martin. Helmholtz GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics Section; Alemania.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Santa Cruz; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral.; Argentina.Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina.Fil: Crowther, Thomas W. Institute of Integrative Biology. ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology); Suiz