Can historic natural disturbances enable conservationopportunities? Evidence from the establishment of nationalparks in Sweden

This study investigates conservation establishment and management in the context of Sweden's 30 national parks by conceptualising natural disturbances as focus events for conservation opportunities. Since positive effects on the environment manifest a long time after a natural disturbance, it may take time before society sees a need to conserve the natural area. To conceptualise such delayed responses to a focus event, the concept of a 'delayed window' is introduced. An analysis of Park Establishment Proposals from the Swedish Parliament for establishing and extending Sweden's national parks was conducted by sending a survey to county representatives for each national park (response rate 19/30). The results show that historic natural disturbances were mentioned as a motivating factor for establishing many of Sweden's 30 national parks (37%, i.e. 11 parks). The result suggests that the delayed window opens when biodiversity and Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) values of historic disturbance(s) become visible. The time span for motivating values is calculated for biodiversity values (18-829 years) and CES values (5-829 years). However, surveyed representatives responded that future disturbances may not be desired or only desired if controlled or limited, highlighting a paradox in terms of the perceived value of past and future disturbances.This paper was included as a manuscript in doctoral thesis entitled "Natural Hazards as Windows of Opportunity for Change: Character and Time Perspectives on Environmental Opportunities and Preparedness", KUS 2023:7.