Development of Spatiotemporal Whole-Stem Models for Estimating End-Product-Based Fibre Attribute Determinates for Jack Pine and Red Pine

The objective of this study was to develop spatiotemporal whole-stem wood quality prediction models for a suite of end-product-based fibre attribute determinates for jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and red pine (Pinus resinosa Aiton): specifically, for wood density (Wd), microfibril angle (Ma), modulus of elasticity (Me), fibre coarseness (Co), tracheid wall thickness (Wt), tracheid radial diameter (Dr), tracheid tangential diameter (Dt), and specific surface area (Sa). Procedurally, these attributes were determined for each annual ring within pith-to-bark xylem sequences extracted from 610 jack pine and 223 red pine cross-sectional disks positioned throughout the main stem of 61 jack pine and 54 red pine sample trees growing within even-aged monospecific stands in central Canada. Deploying a block cross-validation-like approach in order to reduce serial data dependency and enable predictive performance assessments, species-specific calibration and validation data subsets consisting of cumulative moving average values were systematically generated from the 27,820 jack pine and 11,291 red pine attribute-specific annual ring values. Graphical, correlation, regression and validation analyses were used to specify, parameterize and assess the predictive performance of tertiary-level (ring-disk-tree) hierarchical mixed-effects whole-stem equations for each attribute by species. As a result, the jack pine equations explained 46, 66, 74, 63, 59, 72, 42 and 48% of the variation in Wd, Ma, Me, Co, Wt, Dr, Dt and Sa, respectively. The red pine equations explained slightly higher levels of variation except for Me: 50, 71, 31, 83, 72, 78, 56 and 71% of the variation in Wd, Ma, Me, Co, Wt, Dr, Dt and Sa, respectively. Graphical assessments and statistical metrics related to attribute and species-specific residual error patterns and goodness-of-fit, lack-of-fit and predictive error metrics, revealed an absence of systematic bias, misspecification or aberrant predictive performance. Consequently, the resultant parameterized models were acknowledged as acceptable functional descriptors of the intrinsic spatiotemporal cumulative developmental patterns of the studied end-product fibre attribute determinates, for these two pine species. Although predicted development patterns were similar between the species with the greatest degree of nonlinearity occurring before a cambial age of approximately 30 years, irrespective of attribute, jack pine exhibited a greater degree of nonlinearity in the Wd and Dt developmental trajectories, whereas red pine exhibited a greater degree of nonlinearity in the Ma, Me, Co, Wt, Dr and Sa developmental trajectories. Potential biomechanical linkages underlying the observed attribute distribution patterns, as well as the potential utility of the models in forest management, are also discussed