Unveiling the Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Key Drivers for Urban Green High-Quality Development: A Comparative Analysis of China’s Five Major Urban Agglomerations

Faced with the dual challenges of ecological degradation and economic deceleration, promoting urban green high-quality development (UGHQD) is pivotal for achieving economic transformation, ecological restoration, and regional sustainable development. While the existing literature has delved into the theoretical dimensions of UGHQD, there remains a notable dearth of empirical studies that quantitatively assess its developmental levels, spatio-temporal evolution, and driving factors. This study examines 107 cities of China’s five major urban agglomerations from 2003 to 2020, constructing a comprehensive evaluation indicator system for UGHQD. By employing methodologies, including the Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density estimation, Markov chain, and geographical detector, this study extensively assesses the spatial difference, dynamic evolution, and underlying driving forces of UGHQD in these urban agglomerations. The findings indicate: (1) The UGHQD level of the five major urban agglomerations has witnessed a consistent year-over-year growth trend, with coastal agglomerations like the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) outperforming others. (2) Pronounced regional differences exist in UGHQD levels across the urban agglomerations, with inter-regional differences primarily contributing to these differences. (3) The dynamic evolution of UGHQD distribution generally transitions from a centralized to a decentralized pattern, with a marked “club convergence” characteristic hindering cross-type leaps. (4) While a range of factors drive UGHQD in these agglomerations, technological innovation stands out as the principal factor inducing spatial differentiation. The comprehensive analysis and findings presented in this research not only contribute to academic knowledge but also hold practical implications for policymakers and practitioners striving for environmentally conscious land use planning and urban management