Analysis of spatial and temporal changes and driving forces of arable land in the Weibei dry plateau region in China

Abstract Arable land is the lifeblood of food production, it is of great significance to promote the protection of arable land and ensure national food security by accurately understanding the change law of cultivated land and its driving mechanism. This study takes the Weibei dry plateau region of China as an example, explores its spatial and temporal change characteristics through the center of gravity shift and land use shift matrix, and couples the geographic probe model to reveal the driving mechanisms affecting arable land change. The results show that in the past 25 years, the total arable land area in the Weibei Dry Plateau Region of China has decreased by 5.58%, and the stability of arable land resources in the whole region has weakened. The center of gravity of arable land shifts to the northeast, and the standard deviation ellipse of arable land mainly undergoes the change process of "increase (1995–2015)-decrease (2015–2020)", and the spatial distribution of arable land tends to be dispersed. In the LISA frequency mapping, the proportion of stable constant and low-frequency areas is as high as 89.58%, and the spatial pattern of cultivated land is relatively stable. Medium and high frequency areas. The transformation mode is mainly "low-low" aggregation, "low–high" aggregation is not significant, and the decline of cultivated land in the study area is more obvious. In the past 25 years, a total of 1017.26 km2 of arable land was converted to construction land. The explanatory power of the influencing factors varies in each period (0.299 to 0.731), with total agricultural machinery power has the strongest explanatory power of 0.694, 0.592, and 0.731, respectively. The interaction between slope and annual average temperature and other factors being the highest, both greater than 0.8. Through the construction of LISA frequency mapping, combined with the center of gravity model and standard deviation ellipse, the spatial evolution trend of regional arable land is more comprehensively and dynamically grasped. By using the geodetector model, the driving mechanism of the changes of arable land is revealed comprehensively, which provides a theoretical basis for the scientific management and effective protection of arable land resources and a basis for decision-making