Match analysis and probability of winning a point in elite men’s singles tennis

Notational analysis and new technologies have allowed a better understanding of tactical actions in tennis. In particular, the combined analysis of different variables affecting performance is necessary to understand the relationships between actions in competition. The aim of this research was to analyse the probability of winning a point in men’s professional tennis based on the most relevant variables affecting performance in this sport. A total of 4,669 points were analysed on three different court surfaces from the final rounds (from the quarter-finals onwards) of three of the four Grand Slam tournaments in the 2021 season. An observational methodology was applied. Different analysis techniques were used to obtain the results: descriptive and chi-square with a significance level of p