Review of the quarter's economic trends [February 1983]

Most forecasters, including the Treasury itself, predict a modest recovery in the economy this year. The emphasis is however on "modest", with predictions for GDP growth in the range of 1.5$-2.5%, and a further rise in unemployment. In the past month however there have been more favourable indications of renewed growth in the international economy, particularly in the United States, and this, combined with the recent depreciation of sterling, will improve the prospects for UK exports. Actual growth in GDP may be therefore nearer the upper end of the recent range of forecasts. Further analysis of the UK's economic prospects, as well as the world economy, are provided in this trend paper