Outlook and appraisal [December 1991]

In common with its UK counterpart, the Scottish economy appears to have reached a turning point during the third quarter of this year. However, the indications are that recovery, particularly in manufacturing, will be very sluggish, with little evidence of a clear recovery until well into 1992. In the second quarter of 1991 the index of production and construction for Scotland fell by 0.3%, resulting in an annual decline of 4.0% compared with 3.7% for the UK. In manufacturing, the decline in the Scottish index during the quarter was 0.4% compared with 0.7% for the UK, the third successive quarter in which the fall in Scottish manufacturing output has been less than that of the UK. Nevertheless, Scottish manufacturing output fell by 7.5% in the year to June while that of the UK declined by only 3.9%; this is a result of the sharp peak and slump which apparently occurred in Scotland between the first and second halves of 1990