Outlook and appraisal [February 2005]

The Scottish economy appears to have grown more quickly in the second half of last year. A further strengthening in the growth of the service sector, led by finance, real estate and business services and transport services, appears mainly to account for the improvement. Manufacturing remains weak and with falling output its contribution to growth is negative. Electronics output growth further deteriorated in the third quarter of 2004 falling by 4.1% giving greater cause for concern as to the future prospects of the industry in Scotland. Over the year Scottish growth remained much weaker than UK growth at 1.8% compared to 3.2%. A detailed analysis is provided of Scotland's economic growth performance between 1998 and 2004, both before and after the onset of the recession in electronics and manufacturing post 2000