Cyber trust and crime prevention : gaining insight from three different futures

The Foresight project, ‘Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention’ set out to explore the application and implications of next-generation information technologies in areas such as identity and authenticity, surveillance, system robustness, security and information assurance, and the basis for effective interaction and trust between people and machines. In order to achieve this aim, the project has: • produced state-of-the-art reviews of relevant areas of science • set out visions of the future that define a range of possible outcomes • identified possible drivers, signposts, opportunities, threats, barriers to progress and models for decision-making • created a network of scientists, business people and policy makers that can act on the findings to influence the future • set out some specific key challenges and engaged all of those who can address them. RAND Europe was asked to assist the Foresight Directorate in developing scenarios (visions of possible futures) as a basis for conducting three runs of a seminar game (one per scenario), and in running the game, involving experts and representatives from government departments, businesses and civil society. The goals of these games were to: • develop an understanding of relationships among different actors in the system • contribute to consistent policy planning processes rather than specific policies • put forward adaptive, strategic long-term planning ideas