Electricity network scenarios for 2020

This report presents a set of scenarios for the development of the electricity supply industry in Great Britain in the years to 2020. These scenarios illustrate the varied sets of background circumstances which may influence the industry over the coming years – including political and regulatory factors, the strength of the economy and the level to which environmentally-driven restrictions and opportunities influence policy and investment decisions. Previous work by the authors (Elders et al, 2006) has resulted in a set of six scenarios illustrating possible developments in the electricity industry in the period up to 2050. While such scenarios are valuable in gauging the long-term direction of the electricity industry and its economic and environmental consequences, shorter-range scenarios are useful in assessing the steps necessary to achieve these long-range destinations, and to determine their relationship to current trends, policies and targets. In this chapter, a set of medium-range scenarios focused on the year 2020 is developed and described. These scenarios are designed to be consistent both with the current state of the electricity supply industry in Great Britain, and with the achievement of the ultimate electricity generation, supply and utilisation infrastructure and patterns described in each of the 2050 scenarios. The consequences of these scenarios in terms of the emissions of carbon dioxide are evaluated and compared with other predictions. The SuperGen 2020 scenarios described in this report were developed as a collaborative effort between the SuperGen project team and the ITI-Energy Networks Project team both based at the University of Strathclyde